A remarkably frank assessment of the coming Senate races and what they may portend, by Republican operative Mark Thiessen.  T

The Washington Post

Opinion 

Daines looks to turn around the GOP’s 2022 Senate debacle

If Republicans don’t win Senate control this November they won’t have another chance until 2030 or later.

By Marc A. Thiessen

Columnist

May 30, 2024 at 8:15 a.m. EDT

There is an almost irrational exuberance on the right over the 2024 elections. President Biden is so unpopular, and Democrats are in such a panic-driven “freakout,” that many assume victory is all but inevitable.

But when it comes to control of the Senate, Republicans would do well to recall what happened in the 2022 midterms. Then, as now, the Senate map was tilted in their favor, and Biden was one of the most unpopular presidents since World War II. Republicans expected a red wave to sweep them back into power. Instead, they watched as Biden turned in one of the best first midterm performances of any president since John F. Kennedy.

The mastermind behind this epic disaster was Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), whose mismanagement of the National Republican Senatorial Committee— wasting nearly $180 million on consultants and self-promotion while he vacationed in Italy aboard a luxury yacht — left the NRSC’s coffers virtually empty in the final months of the campaign. The committee had to cancel ad buys in critical swing states and take out $13 million in loans in September just to cover its operating expenses. And Scott’s failure to intervene in the primaries left Republicans with a slate of unelectable candidates who lost winnable races in state after state.

Now, after leaving the NRSC $20 million in debt and Democrats with an expanded majority, Scott has announced he will run for Senate GOP leader. His candidacy gives new meaning to the term “failing up.”

There won’t be a Republican majority to lead unless Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) — the man left to clean up Scott’s mess — succeeds where Scott disastrously failed. And the new NRSC chairman has a warning for his fellow Republicans: If the GOP blows it again, they won’t get another chance to win Senate control for a decade or more.

In an interview in Daines’s campaign offices, he ­pointed out that in 2024, the GOP is defending no seats in states Biden won, while Democrats are defending three in states Donald Trump won in 2020 (Montana, Ohio and West Virginia) and five in states Biden won by 5 points or less (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and Michigan). Add to this the surprise candidacy of former Maryland governor Larry Hogan (R) — who was recruited by Daines’s chief of staff, Darin Thacker, the old-fashioned way, by a heartfelt letter urging him to run — having put a Democrat-held seat in play, and that’s nine good pickup opportunities.

But after November, Daines warned, the opportunities dry up.

“I’m a Procter & Gamble exec from 13 years,” he said. “They teach you how to think and lead strategically” and “look out over the horizon” to assess opportunities and risks. So he looked at the Senate map for 2026. “It started to get real quiet that night when I saw there were zero red states … with Democrats up [for reelection] in ’26,” he said. Then he looked at 2028. “It even got quieter: It was zero.”

In other words, he said, if Republicans fail to take back the majority this cycle, “we likely stay in the minority through 2030.”

The drought could actually last longer, he explained, if Democrats win the Senate, the House and the presidency — something that is unlikely but not impossible given their recent record of upset wins. Then, he said, “the filibuster is gone.” The only reason it survived Biden’s first two years, when Democrats had unified control of government, is because two Democrats — Sens. Joe Manchin III (W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) — saved it.

“Both are retiring,” he said. Without the filibuster, Democrats could pack the Senate by making D.C. and Puerto Rico states, which could result in “four Democrat senators in perpetuity added to the mix.” They could ram through H.R. 1, which would allow them to rewrite federal voting rules to favor their party. That means “no more voter ID requirements” and “mail-in ballot elections everywhere.” Finally, he said, they could pack the Supreme Court with additional justices who would uphold their power grab.

He is determined to make sure that does not happen. Unlike Scott, who failed to intervene in the primaries, Daines made sure the GOP nominated the most electable candidates in key states. “When you look at election cycles … filing day is as important as election day,” he said. “So we weren’t afraid to get involved — in some cases, aggressively — in primaries because the stakes are too high to sit back and just kind of watch it all unfold.”

Daines worked to find what he called “winsome conservatives” with Reaganesque qualities who could “appeal beyond just the Republican base, and also to independent voters, [who] will decide these tight elections.

“The nation’s yearning for that,” he said. “Winners make policy, losers go home.”

An early Trump supporter, Daines worked with the former president to secure his endorsement of those candidates. Trump endorsed Gov. Jim Justice over Rep. Alex Mooney in West Virginia, and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy over Rep. Matt Rosendale in Montana, as well as former representative Mike Rogers in Michigan, David McCormick in Pennsylvania (whom he had passed over for Mehmet Oz in 2022) and businessman Eric Hovde in Wisconsin.

His recruiting record is not perfect. In Ohio, Democrats have repeated their successful 2022 strategy of backing “poison pill” MAGA candidates, spending over $2.5 million to boost Trump-backed Bernie Moreno with ads calling him “too conservative for Ohio.” The RealClearPolitics average has the Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown up by 5 points in a state where Trump is leading by 10.

And in Arizona, Republicans nominated the disastrous Kari Lake — a poster child for the GOP’s 2022 midterm failure — who lost a winnable governor’s race. Lake is so unpopular that far-left Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is leading her by 7 points in the RCP average in a state where Trump is leading by 4.

Despite those setbacks, the GOP is far better positioned to make gains this year thanks to Daines. The race in West Virginia is “all but over,” he said, which means that, barring unexpected GOP losses, there will be at least a 50-50 Senate. Republicans would only need to flip one more seat to secure the majority outright.

In his home state of Montana, Daines predicts, “Trump is going to win by 15 to 20 points,” which will benefit Sheehy in his bid to unseat Sen. Jon Tester (D). And in Ohio, Trump’s 10-point lead could boost Moreno. In Michigan, “Biden’s got real problems,” not just with Arab American voters in Dearborn but also with the United Auto Workers, whose members are “very concerned [about] what’s happening right now with these crazy green initiatives coming from the Biden administration, mandating EVs.” And, Daines said, “nobody had Maryland on their dance card.”

In addition, Daines said, Biden has a growing problem not just with swing voters but also with his own base. “These Senate races on election night may come down to 1 or 2 points. You start looking at where Biden and the Democrats are struggling right now with minority voters, including African Americans and Hispanics, and also Jewish voters. I think if you add that up, it becomes a real problem for the Democrats.”

If he pulls it off, Daines will be an instant contender to lead the new Senate majority. Trump has already thrown his support behind him. But right now, he said, “Truly, I’m not aspiring to be leader. I’m focused on getting the majority back.

“The stakes could not be higher, and failure is not an option,” he added.

“It’s going to be important, when President Trump wins, that we have the ability for this new Senate majority to work closely and well with the new administration,” he said. “I can play in that position in many different ways, and I’m focused here on winning the majority, and then policy wins once President Trump’s elected with the Republican majority of the Senate.”

This much is certain: If the guy who wins the Senate majority jumps in the race for leader, the guy who lost it two years ago has no chance.

Opinion by Marc Thiessen

Marc Thiessen writes a column for The Post on foreign and domestic policy. He is a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and the former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/05/30/gop-daines-2024-senate/